The Hindu Editorial Analysis 28 May, 2025 on Why has the Monsoon come early this year?

 

Why Has the Monsoon Arrived Early in India in 2025?

The 2025 Indian monsoon has taken meteorologists by surprise with its earlier-than-usual arrival. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 26, marking its onset three days ahead of the typical June 1 schedule. This early onset has raised several questions: Why did the monsoon come early this year? Does an early monsoon guarantee better rainfall? How do global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña affect monsoon timing? Let’s explore the answers in detail.

1. Early Onset of Monsoon in 2025

• The IMD officially announced the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 26, 2025.

• The early onset comes as a positive shift following past years where monsoons arrived late.

• Rainfall started increasing across southern India days before the official declaration, indicating strong monsoonal activity.

2. Impact of Ocean Temperatures on Monsoon Patterns

• Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean significantly influence monsoon behavior.

• A weaker El Niño is currently transitioning toward neutral conditions, which typically supports normal to slightly early monsoon onset.

• Warmer-than-average temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea helped increase moisture content in the atmosphere, leading to early rainfall.

3. Role of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

• The MJO is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the globe and affects rainfall patterns.

• When the MJO phase aligns over the Indian Ocean, it enhances convection and storm activity.

• In May 2025, favorable MJO positioning led to strengthened low-pressure systems and early rain bands.

4. Early Monsoon Onset in Past Years

• A similar early onset was recorded in 2009, with the monsoon reaching Kerala on May 23.

• However, 2009 turned into a drought year due to poor rainfall distribution despite early onset.

• This highlights the importance of not associating early onset with above-normal rainfall automatically.

5. Seasonal Rainfall Distribution

• Even though the monsoon has arrived early, the overall rainfall performance across India still depends on its spatial and temporal distribution.

• Uneven distribution can lead to floods in one region and droughts in another, despite normal total rainfall.

6. Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

• The IOD, a temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, plays a crucial role in monsoon strength.

• A positive IOD enhances rainfall over India, while a negative IOD can weaken it.

• As of May 2025, neutral IOD conditions are observed, providing a balanced influence on the monsoon.

7. Impact of Climate Change on Monsoon Trends

• Climate change has increased the unpredictability of the monsoon season.

• Scientists have observed a gradual shift in monsoon onset dates and erratic rainfall patterns due to global warming.

• Warmer air holds more moisture, which may lead to intense but short bursts of rain.

8. El Niño and La Niña Connection

• El Niño conditions typically weaken the Indian monsoon, while La Niña strengthens it.

• In 2023 and 2024, a strong El Niño phase led to weaker-than-average rainfall across many regions in India.

• In 2025, the weakening El Niño may contribute to a neutral or slightly positive effect on this year’s monsoon.

9. Agricultural Implications of Early Monsoon

• Early rainfall supports early sowing of crops like rice, maize, cotton, and pulses.

• Farmers in southern and central India are likely to benefit from the head start provided by the monsoon.

• However, if rainfall is not well-distributed, it can harm crop yields and water storage planning.

10. Urban Challenges with Early Rains

• Cities like Kochi and Mumbai faced waterlogging and traffic issues due to the unexpected intensity of early rains.

• Urban drainage systems are often unprepared for premature monsoon showers.

• Better forecasting and infrastructure upgrades are needed to reduce the impact of early rainfall.

11. Forecast Accuracy and Challenges

• Despite technological advances, predicting monsoon onset and strength remains complex.

• Models rely on sea surface temperature, pressure systems, and wind patterns, which can change rapidly.

• Scientists emphasize the importance of long-term data and satellite monitoring for better forecasts.

12. Public Preparedness and Awareness

• Timely monsoon updates can help farmers, city planners, and emergency services prepare better.

• Media channels and weather apps are vital tools for disseminating early warning information.

• Educating the public on interpreting forecasts and rainfall advisories can reduce the risk of weather-related disasters.

13. Is Early Monsoon Arrival a New Normal?

• While early onsets have occurred in the past, a pattern of consistently early arrivals could indicate long-term climate shifts.

• Data shows an increasing frequency of unpredictable monsoon events in the last two decades.

• Ongoing research is needed to determine whether this is part of a natural cycle or human-induced climate impact.

14. Government and Policy Implications

• State governments and the central administration need to align water resource management with changing rainfall patterns.

• Early rains should trigger earlier storage, flood control, and crop insurance mechanisms.

• Strengthening India’s weather prediction system is key to resilience against climate shocks.

15. Summary of Key Reasons for Early Monsoon in 2025

• Warmer Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

• Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity.

• Weakening El Niño conditions transitioning to neutral.

• No significant negative IOD observed.

• Local low-pressure systems accelerating rain activity.